Friday, Oct. 12, 2007 3:00 am
Written by Lorraine Ahearn
Thus spake Zarathustra (or was it Gomer Pyle?): "Surprise, surprise."
The New York Times reported this week that as in other states, North Carolina's "Education Lottery" hasn't produced the much-vaunted windfall to our schools, and in fact only contributed some $300 million. That's about 1.1 percent of the state's $27 billion (with a "b") education budget.
Where does the lion's share of lottery money go? Well, duh. Half goes to bigger and better jackpots, and it costs money to administer the game (not even counting bribes), pay vendors and run TV ads, including the one with the thank-you card signed "The Students."
What was the reaction to this shocking front-page news from politicians who sold the lottery to voters as the big fix for strapped school systems? Or, at least, from those politicians not currently in federal prison?
You guessed it: The story wasn't fair. It didn't give the other side. It was your typical, New York Times, laugh-at-the-hayseeds hatchet job (though to be up-front, the story recited facts that had already been reported in a variety of North Carolina newspapers, including this one).
Now, part of the underlying chagrin is that the nation's newest state lottery, in its maiden year of operation, didn't rake in the projected $1.2 billion, but instead came in at $890 million. Which goes back to that whole knock on gambling. It's always such a ... what's the word? Gamble.
The fact is, lottery supporters overestimated the pent-up demand on the part of players who used to drive to Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and even South Cackalacky to play.
"Our people are playing the lottery. We just need to decide which schools we should fund: Other states' or ours?" Gov. Mike Easley declared in his 2005 State of the State address.
"I am for funding OUR schools."
What an applause line. Either you were for the lottery, or you were for sending hundreds of millions of dollars out of North Carolina to support other states' schools. To be anti-lottery, in other words, was to be anti-education. Anti-child, even.
But let's say the lottery had gone on a lucky roll and contributed the best estimate of $500 million the governor envisioned. How far would that have gone in a $27 billion budget?
It depends on how fast you move the shells around. Lottery proceeds were, on paper, supposed to be gravy on top of existing money for programs such as at-risk preschools or class size reduction.
The reality? As usual, the money burned a hole in the state's pocket. Or, to put it in Raleighspeak, "freed up" revenue for other priorities.
Still, let's imagine that the lottery not only had a pie-in-sky, billion-dollar-plus year, and further imagine that all the proceeds designated for a specific purpose — say, building new schools — were added to the existing budget. How far would that go?
For school construction, that would have been an extra $200 million statewide, which sounds like a lot. That is, until you consider the estimated cost of rebuilding Eastern Guilford High School alone: $61 million.
Then there are those other 27 projects on the Guilford County list, which is why our school board will ask voters to approve a $440 million bond next year. Not to mention those other 99 counties in the state, where voters will also be wondering, "What about the Education Lottery?"
We need a new referendum — not to abolish the lottery, just to rename it. It'll be a Pick 3: The Tar Heel Gambling Tariff. Diamond Jim Blackjack. The NASDAQ of NASCAR Country.
No, it doesn't take that soothsayer Zarathustra to read these odds: The chance of winning $100: One in 11,927. And to hit the jackpot? One in 146,107,962.
Shazam! Even Gomer knows you can't roller skate in a buffalo herd. And this lottery's not about education.